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Initially, the former US president appeared to embrace a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer should Russia's president persisted obstructing peace talks, Trump eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, that was developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to view the war as a mere land disagreement, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although keeping in status the already separated regions of these areas, the plan would force the nation to give up the entire Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding Russia with land that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that represent a critical impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a clear route to the capital if he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to cut the scale of its military from their present large number personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the plan sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "decisive coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

Another side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. However unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to react militarily to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not