How The Bizarre Campaign Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.
But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.
During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!
Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4
Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.
Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.
The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.
Still