Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
